Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,349.83 points, decreased 12.87 points or 0.94% with a trading value of 44.13 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market fell and was in line with the regional markets. Investors were awaiting the announcement of inflation figures from the US and Europe coming this week. As for domestic factors, the market was pressured by concerns over the possibility that the Thai government could take an additional loan of THB 122 billion for the application of the digital wallet scheme, while the weakened baht caused the fund flow to decrease. The market also lacked supporting factors to offset the decline.
The analyst expected the market to be dull tomorrow.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its projection for China’s economic growth in 2024 to 5% from the previous estimate of 4.6%. The upward revision is attributed to the robust first-quarter performance and recent policy initiatives implemented in the country.
This adjustment comes after an IMF mission conducted a routine evaluation in China. The organization now anticipates a growth rate of 4.5% for China’s economy by 2025, up from the previous prediction of 4.1%.
However, looking ahead to 2029, the IMF foresees a slowdown in China’s growth to 3.3% due to factors such as an aging population and diminishing productivity gains. This is a decrease from the previous medium-term forecast of 3.5% growth.
Thailand’s attorney-general stated that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will be indicted over alleged insults against the monarchy, a significant blow to the political heavyweight whose supporters are currently part of the government.
The accusations stem from an interview Thaksin gave to foreign media in 2015, leading to charges including breaching the computer crime law.
Thaksin is prepared to demonstrate his innocence in response to accusations of insulting the monarchy, as confirmed by his lawyer on Wednesday.
Board member Seiji Adachi of the Bank of Japan suggested on Wednesday that the central bank might increase interest rates in response to significant declines in the yen that could drive inflation higher or alter public perceptions of future prices more than anticipated.
Adachi clarified that while transient currency fluctuations alone would not prompt a policy adjustment, a sustained devaluation of the yen could lead to a revision of interest rates if it substantially impacts inflation expectations.
Emphasizing the importance of considering both upside and downside risks in policy formulation, Adachi underscored the need to avoid premature rate hikes while remaining vigilant against a sudden acceleration in inflation that may necessitate a drastic tightening of monetary policy in the future.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. anticipates a shift in the Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy trajectory, now projecting a commencement of easing measures in the first half of 2025 instead of the initially anticipated second half of this year.
The bank’s revised outlook is founded on the government’s augmented spending agenda aimed at bolstering economic growth, thereby alleviating the pressure on the central bank to reduce interest rates.
Goldman Sachs highlighted the forthcoming acceleration in sequential growth starting from the second quarter, driven by a surge in government expenditures and the anticipated stimulation from the digital wallet spending initiative later in the year.
The revised forecast suggests a 25-basis point rate reduction in the second and third quarters of 2025, deviating from the previous expectation of easing in the third quarter of 2024.
