China is preparing for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, with its analysts forecasting different challenges depending on the winner.
According to Chinese strategists, Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory would likely bring intense rhetoric, increased tariffs, and potentially new trade deals involving Taiwan.
As for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, China anticipates policies resembling those of President Joe Biden, focusing on collaboration with allies to address issues like technology restrictions, Taiwan, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Regardless of the winner, tensions between China and the U.S. are expected to persist, with both parties viewing their nations’ rivalry as a critical issue. However, analysts suggest that neither candidate is likely to pursue a major military conflict or a complete severance of economic and societal ties.
Despite this, Chinese producers and experts have expressed concern over Trump’s tariff policy, as he plans to increase the tariff rate on Chinese imports by 60%. They believe this will not only affect China but also the entire international economic and trade system.
Another concern involves U.S. alliance partners. China predicts that both candidates will continue working with NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS to counter their growing influence. However, Trump may use Taiwan as leverage in negotiations with China, given his demand that the island pay for its defense.
Opinion polls show the race between Trump, 78, and Harris, 60, as too close to call. Meanwhile, Trump has signaled that he may challenge the results if he loses, as he did in 2020.
