Maybank Securities (Thailand) (MST) gives a quick comment on the outlook of True Corporation (SET: TRUE) after losing the rights to broadcast English Premier League for JAS starting from the 2025/26 season.
The analyst from Maybank Thailand notes that the impact on TRUE from JAS acquiring the rights of EPL should be neutral.
According to the news release, JAS has secured exclusive broadcasting rights for the English Premier League (EPL) and FA Cup in Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos. The initial agreement covers at least 3 seasons, starting from the EPL 2025/26 season, with an investment cost of 8 billion baht. JAS may extend its broadcasting rights up to 6 seasons if they receive written confirmation from The Football Association Premier League (FAPL) by December 1, 2024, which would increase the cost to 19 billion baht.
Prior to this development, TRUE was the primary broadcaster of the EPL in Thailand for every season, except for the three seasons between 2013 and 2016.
Maybank Thailand believes JAS acquiring the EPL broadcasting rights will have a neutral impact on TRUE, as the anticipated revenue and investment costs (capex) may be lower than expected. TRUE currently retains broadcasting rights for the 2024/25 season (August 16, 2024 – May 25, 2025), which means the financial implications for TRUE from JAS’s win will not be immediate.
Based on MST’s model, it is projected that annual revenue from True Vision subscribers during FY24-26E would decline by 6%. Without the EPL, revenues could potentially decrease at a faster rate than currently forecasted.
