According to Kasikorn Securities, the economic forecast for FY25 anticipates a GDP growth of between 2.5% and 3.3%, with a median projection of 2.8%, offering a more cautious outlook than the market’s anticipation of 3.0%.
The comment came after the report of an economic growth of 3.0% year-on-year for the third quarter, surpassing the median forecast of a 2.6% expansion predicted by a Reuters survey of economists.
Boosted by an arguably low base this year, government expenditure is predicted to be a significant growth propellant. Concurrently, investment is set to escalate, backed by various supportive policies, while a recovery in purchasing power is likely to enhance private consumption.
In light of an upswing in the global demand and electronics cycle, exports could potentially gain impetus. However, they also run the risk of facing policy headwinds from the U.S., particularly if Donald Trump secures a possible electoral victory.
The better-than-expected 3Q24 Thai GDP growth is seen as a vital positive stimulant the market has long awaited, especially considering the prolonged dearth of new triggers. This surge in GDP is expected to secure the SET index above our proposed key support level of 1,440.
Sectors tied to private consumption and government spending may present potential benefit opportunities. Firms worth considering include those in commerce (CPALL, CPAXT, MOSHI, DOHOME, GLOBAL), construction materials (TASCO), and banking—owing to a positive outlook on loan growth, especially for KTB, BBL, and SCB.
