Odds generated from the prediction market indicating a halt in December’s rate cut have notably risen to 41%, Kalshi has reported.
Just ten days prior to this, an 80% likelihood was observed in the markets for another rate cut of 25 basis points. With a sharp contrast to two months before, markets had estimated a decrease of 50 basis points for both the November and December get-togethers.
Fed’s Chairman Powell, having initiated the rate cuts with a reduction of 50 bps just a couple of months ago, has recently expressed no urgency in implementing further cuts- the first since 2008. Core CPI inflation, having been over 3% unswervingly for the past 43 months, is witnessing a resurgence.
The CME FedWatch Tool has simultaneously reported a fall in the chances of a rate cut in December with the odds decreasing from 62% (a week ago) and 71% (a month ago) to the present 56%.
