On December 11, 2024, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) reaffirmed Thailand’s Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB+ with a Stable Outlook, according to Mr. Patchara Anuntasilpa, Director of the Public Debt Management Office.
The agency identified three key factors for monitoring a nation’s credit rating, which are economic growth relative to peers, income per capita, and domestic political stability. S&P highlighted that while the 10,000-baht handout policy supports private consumption and drives continued growth, it is also expected to raise Net General Government Debt to GDP by 3.3% in 2025.
Nevertheless, it forecasts that economic stimulus measures and the recovery of the tourism sector will drive Thailand’s economic growth from 1.9% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024 and 3.1% in 2025. Real GDP growth is also projected to average 3.0% from 2024 to 2027, while the proportion of budget deficit to GDP is expected to average 3.3% during 2025–2026.
The nation’s external finance is anticipated to remain strong, with the country maintaining a current account surplus of 1.4% in 2023. From 2024 to 2027, the surplus is expected to average 2.3%, primarily driven by the recovery in services exports.
Additionally, the tourism sector continues to recover, which will support economic growth over the next two years. From January to October 2024, tourist numbers rose to 28.8 million, a 29.3% increase from the same period last year. This growth is expected to continue, boosted by the government’s visa exemption measures.
S&P believes that the Thai government will continue investing in line with the national strategy, including projects like the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) and transportation infrastructure. It further anticipates that investments from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships will play a key role in driving infrastructure development, which will enhance Thailand’s long-term economic competitiveness.
