OPEC+ is concerned about a potential rise in US oil production when Donald Trump returns to the White House. Delegates from the group expressed fears that this increase could erode OPEC+’s market share and undermine its efforts to support oil prices.
The organization controls about half of the world’s oil supply. However, due to weak demand and increasing production from the US and other non-OPEC+ countries, the group and its allies delayed its plan to raise output until 2026, while expecting to gradually unwind the 2.2 million bpd cut from April 2025.
Some delegates, however, expressed optimism about US oil under Trump, citing his transition team’s proposal to deregulate the energy sector. While some believe his policies could boost oil demand, they remain concerned that higher US oil supply might negatively impact OPEC+.
Nonetheless, the increase in US output would challenge OPEC+ plans to raise output in April 2025 without lowering oil prices, which would hurt OPEC+ members that depend on oil revenues. Moreover, it has weakened OPEC+’s influence on global oil markets.
OPEC often underestimates US output, as seen from 2022 to 2024 when US oil output rose by 11%, reaching 21.6 million bpd from 10 million bpd 11 years ago. Meanwhile, OPEC+’s share of global oil production has dropped from 55% to 48%, the lowest since its formation in 2016.
Recently, OPEC projected US oil supply will rise by 2.3% next year, while the IEA expects a 3.5% increase. However, some executives and analysts remain skeptical about significant supply growth under Trump, as US producers, such as shale companies, typically only increase output if it’s profitable.
Moreover, developing new oilfields takes considerable time, so Trump’s promise to drill new areas will not produce results quickly. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and former White House official, added that the US has no spare capacity and will need to monitor OPEC+’s decisions before determining how much to drill.
