Mr. Komsorn Prakobphol, Head of the TISCO Economic and Strategic Analysis Center (TISCO ESU), revealed that the Thai stock market in 2025 is expected to reach 1,550 points, driven by an improving economy. However, the upside remains limited due to negative factors such as trade wars.
Domestically, the banking and energy sectors are facing challenges specific to each industry. For example, interest rate cuts are impacting banking profits, while the energy sector is grappling with sales issues.
In early 2025, the total amount of 240 billion baht of Long-Term Equity Fund (LTF) will reach maturity. Meanwhile, the remaining value of LTF in the industry ready to be redeemed is also 240 billion baht. However, it remains to be seen whether investors will choose to redeem their funds.
Nevertheless, there is a possibility that LTF funds will be redirected into Thai ESG funds, as these funds offer tax-saving options for equity, debt, and mixed funds with much better conditions compared to the previous options.
As for the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), it has already fully invested 150 billion baht, spread across both stocks and bonds. Therefore, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Thai stock market for the remainder of this year and next.
In terms of returns, Thai stocks in 2025 are not expected to perform as well as those in the US or Japan. However, the retail and tourism sectors in Thailand remain the most promising and interesting areas.
Additionally, the Thai economy is expected to grow by 3% in 2025, up from the 2.8% growth forecast for 2024. As for key risk factors, these include the potential for new trade wars, persistently high household debt, and the ongoing deterioration of credit quality.
Special attention should be given to the conversion of special mention (SM) loans into non-performing loans (NPL), particularly in the automotive loan sector.
