Krungsri Securities (KSS) recommended that investors focus on tourism stocks following a notable surge in tourist arrivals in Thailand during the second week of January 2025. The country welcomed a total of 813,000 tourists, marking an 11.5% increase from the previous week. The influx was primarily driven by visitors from China (135,973 tourists) and supplemented by arrivals from Malaysia, Russia, South Korea, and India.
The analyst indicated that there were no signs of negative impacts on Chinese tourists, contrary to the forecasts made by several listed tourism and aviation firms.
As of January 12, 2025, the year-to-date tourist count stood at 1.32 million, averaging 110,000 visitors per day, reflecting a 19.9% year-on-year increase. This growth trend has the potential to support KSS’s projected 2025 target of 40 million tourist arrivals, representing a 12.7% annual growth, with room for further upside if the current trend remains steady.
In the face of the prospect of declining Chinese tourist arrivals following reports of a Chinese actor’s disappearance impacting tourism stock prices negatively, the analyst remains optimistic about a positive shift in sentiment regarding tourists visiting Thailand. This optimism is fueled by the recent 36% week-on-week surge in Chinese tourist arrivals, in addition to advancements in the Entertainment Complex initiative. These factors are expected to contribute to the gradual recovery and momentum of tourism stocks.
The Thai government has disclosed details regarding the Entertainment Complex project timeline. The planned schedule entails the announcement of relevant laws in early 2026, followed by an area study and open bidding process in 2026-2027. Construction is slated to commence in 2028, with an expected operational debut 3-4 years thereafter.
To kick off the project, the investment framework will involve a bidding process open to consortiums comprising Thai and foreign firms, each with a registered capital of 10 billion baht. Prospective investors must commit to a minimum investment of 100 billion baht per site and possess relevant industry experience.
The investment in the designated area must encompass the following components: 1) Infrastructure-ready zone, 2) Tourist-centric locale, and 3) Government-designated zone to optimize land rental revenue for the government.
Casinos will account for about 5% of the total area. The rest will consist of 4-5 star hotels with a combined total of no less than 4,000-5,000 rooms, as well as an international convention and exhibition center, an indoor stadium with a capacity of 10,000-16,000 seats, a world-class concert hall, shopping malls, duty-free shops, theme parks, art and cultural venues, Michelin-starred restaurants and special event venues.
Currently, six prominent industry players have expressed interest in investing in the Entertainment Complex project, namely: 1) Las Vegas Sands, 2) Wynn Resorts, 3) Caesars Entertainment, 4) MGM China Holdings Limited, 5) Hard Rock Cafe, and 6) Melco Resorts & Entertainment.
As a result, KSS views the progress as favorable for stocks within the theme involving the Entertainment Complex, including companies like AOT, BTS, VGI (speculative), BJC, BA, and MBK.
