The Investor Relations team of Ichitan Group Public Company Limited (SET: ICHI) revealed to ‘Kaohoon’ that, based on updates from the management team, the 4Q24 performance is expected to align with analysts’ forecasts, showing slight growth. This limited growth is attributed to the La Niña phenomenon, which prolonged the rainy season until the middle of 4Q24 resulting in a decline in sales.
Meanwhile, the company expects revenue from the overall performance in 2024 to reach its target of 9 billion THB, an increase from the 8 billion THB achieved in 2023. The board of directors will hold a meeting to approve these results and release the financial statement on February 24, 2025.
Regarding the progress of land sales or leasing agreements with a partner to build a new factory aimed at supporting ICHI’s revenue that reaches tens of billion THB, the partner has already begun developing the land. While the license amendment proposal to the Board of Investment of Thailand is currently pending, clarity is expected within 3Q25 regarding whether the partner will acquire or lease the land, followed by profit recognition or rental payments thereafter.
Krungsri Securities (KSS) recommends a “BUY” rating for ICHI, with a revised target price of 17 THB per share, down from the previous 22 THB. The adjustment reflects weaker sales and profit growth in 4Q24, both domestically and internationally.
Core profit for 4Q24 is expected to grow by only 1% year-over-year. Additionally, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 – 2026 has been reduced by 4 – 6% to account for weaker sales growth. The 2025 EPS is projected to grow by 4.2%, which may limit the stock’s valuation. As a result, the target price is based on 15.3x of P/E ratio in 2025.
Furthermore, the analyst also projects ICHI to generate a total revenue of 8.63 billion THB and a net profit of 1.42 billion THB in 2024. For 2025, total revenue is forecasted to grow to 9.15 billion THB, with net profit increasing slightly to 1.44 billion THB.
Core profit for 2025 is also expected to grow by 4.2%, reaching 1.4 billion THB, primarily driven by domestic sales as exports are anticipated to remain stable. The domestic market is expected to stay competitive, with challenges persisting in the export market, particularly in Myanmar. The gross profit margin is projected to expand by 0.9 percentage points, with projections that sugar prices could drop by around 24%, while selling expenses and sales are expected to remain stable.
