On Monday at 10:54 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (SET: TOP) jumped by 5.69% or THB 1.40 to THB 26.00, with a trading value of THB 472.27 million.
Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS) stated in its analysis that TOP reported a net profit of 2.76 billion baht for the fourth quarter of 2024, a significant turnaround from a 4.2 billion baht loss in the previous quarter. However, this was a decline from a net profit of 2.94 billion baht in the fourth quarter of 2023. The primary support came from the Gross Refining Margin (GRM), which was 7.1 USD per barrel in 4Q24, up from 1.7 USD per barrel in the previous quarter, though still below the 8.6 USD per barrel level of the same period last year.
Rising crude oil prices in both the prior quarter and the previous year resulted in a stock gain of 5 USD per barrel, compared to no gain in the previous quarter and a 3.6 USD per barrel gain in the same period last year.
Meanwhile, the company faced foreign exchange (FX) losses of 487 million baht, a reversal from a gain of 2.1 billion baht in the previous quarter and 1.8 billion baht in the same period last year.
Despite pressures from a weak aromatics business caused by declining sales prices amid slowing global demand, the company’s EBITDA increased from both the previous quarter and year-on-year, as the refining business continued to operate efficiently.
For the first quarter of 2025, the performance is expected to slow due to a decrease in refining margins from 4Q24. The IAA Consensus forecasts TOP’s net profit in 2025 to average 11 billion baht, a 17% increase from the previous year, setting an average price target of 31 baht per share.
Nonetheless, long-term investors are advised to switch to BCP as TOP is seeking shareholder approval on February 21, 2025, to increase investment in the CFP project by another 60-80 billion baht. This may lead to cost overruns and increased risks during the construction phase, which will take up to two years.
