China’s exports soared to unprecedented levels in the early part of 2025 as impending US tariffs prompted a rush in shipments with uncertainties continuing to linger not knowing what Trump’s tariffs policy would be.
According to the General Administration of Customs, the first two months saw export values climb 2.3% to $540 billion, while imports dropped unexpectedly by 8.4%, driving the trade surplus to a record nearly $171 billion.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated greater optimism, predicting export growth of 5.9% and a 1% rise in imports.
The reality of these figures highlights China’s navigation through the challenges presented since the US tariff hikes initiated under President Donald Trump. Notably, the tariff rate on Chinese imports doubled from 10% to 20% in early March.
Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that while China’s tech sector is thriving, domestic demand remains fragile due to ongoing property market woes.
The decline in imports underscores a subdued internal economy, which in turn dampens global trade dynamics, as Chinese import figures have hit a low not seen since 2020.
In recent governmental moves, Beijing announced plans to widen its budget deficit, aiming to sustain a 5% growth target for 2025 amidst these headwinds.
As one of the major players in global trade, China faces significant risks from a potential escalation into a full-scale trade war. Although direct exports to the US account for just 15% of China’s total, an intricate global supply chain reroutes many Chinese goods via nations like Vietnam and Mexico.
ASEAN nations have become vital trade partners, with China shipping a remarkable $87 billion worth of goods to the bloc in the first two months, marking Vietnam as a key recipient. European Union countries also saw increased Chinese exports relative to the previous year.
Continued US tariff hikes pose serious threats to China’s economic momentum, which derived one-third of its growth from exports last year. The potential impact of heightened tariffs could curtail the speed of export expansion for the remainder of 2025.
The uptrend in US-bound shipments illustrates the urgency among businesses to expedite deliveries before additional tariffs inflate costs.
Exports to the US surged to almost $76 billion, the highest in three years for this period, although they remained below 2022’s pandemic-driven highs when bilateral trade surged.
Chinese trade stats traditionally aggregate data for January and February to mitigate fluctuations from the Lunar New Year holiday, with monthly specifics to be disclosed subsequently.
