China’s economic growth is anticipated to have decelerated during the first quarter due to a sustained slump in the property market, while policymakers ready themselves for the repercussions of significant U.S. tariffs. Analysts caution that these tariffs represent the greatest threat to China’s economy in decades.
President Donald Trump has notably escalated tariffs on imported Chinese goods, provoking Beijing to retaliate with duties on U.S. imports, deepening a trade clash between the two largest global economies. Markets are increasingly concerned that this conflict could usher in a global recession.
According to a Reuters survey, the forthcoming data slated for release on Wednesday is expected to reveal China’s GDP growth at 5.1% year-on-year for the January-March quarter, a slowdown from 5.4% in the preceding quarter. Analysts predict an even dimmer outlook as Washington’s tariff measures begin to impact China’s vital export sector, increasing the burden on Chinese authorities who are striving to maintain economic stability and avert widespread unemployment.
Additionally, a boost in exports seen in March, spurred by manufacturers hastening to ship goods before the latest U.S. tariffs take effect, is expected to sharply decline in the following months.
For 2025, a Reuters poll anticipates China’s economy will grow by a modest 4.5% compared to the previous year’s 5.0%, not meeting the Chinese official target of approximately 5.0%. UBS has revised its 2025 growth projection for China downward to 3.4% from 4%, assuming that the tariff hikes between China and the U.S. persist and Beijing implements further economic stimulus measures.
