The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday downgraded its growth forecasts for China and India for 2025, citing trade tensions and “high policy uncertainty.”
The IMF revised its GDP growth estimates for China and India to 4% and 6.2% respectively, a decrease from the previous January estimates of 4.6% and 6.5%.
China’s official GDP growth target was set at “around 5%” for 2025, while India projected a 6.5% growth for its 2025 fiscal year running from April 2025 to March 2026.
The IMF also cut Japan’s growth forecast from 1.1% to 0.6%. Japan has a growth projection of 1.1% for its 2025 fiscal year, also running from April 2025 to March 2026.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised downward its growth forecasts for Asian countries, which also includes China and India for 2025, attributing the revisions to increasing trade conflicts and significant policy unpredictability.
China has set its official GDP growth target at about 5% for 2025, while India anticipates achieving a 6.5% growth rate for its fiscal year spanning April 2025 to March 2026.
Additionally, the IMF reduced Japan’s economic growth forecast from 1.1% to 0.6%. Japan is aiming for a 1.1% GDP growth target for its fiscal year of 2025, which also covers the period from April 2025 to March 2026.
The IMF also revised Thailand’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.8%, a significant decrease from its initial projection of 2.9% made in January. Among ASEAN countries, Thailand is the only nation for which the IMF has adjusted the GDP forecast to below 2%. Furthermore, the forecast for 2026 predicts a continued decline, with growth expected to decrease to 1.6%.
Meanwhile, Vietnam is also expected to feel significant effects from ongoing trade wars. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Vietnam’s GDP forecast for 2025 to 5.2%, a decline from the previous estimate of 6.1% made late last year. The IMF further projects a continued slowdown in 2026, adjusting the growth forecast down to a mere 4%.
In the broader outlook, the fund projects a global economic growth of only 2.8% in 2025, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 3.3% predicted in January.
