Kiatnakin Phatra Securities (KKPS) noted in its report that as Thai hospitals emerge from a sluggish final quarter in 2024, a modest uptick in operations is anticipated for the first quarter of 2025.
Despite year-on-year earnings growth lingering below the mid-to-high teen figures seen in past years—except for Praram 9 Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: PR9)—a quarter-over-quarter rebound is on the horizon, notably for Bangkok Chain Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BCH) and Chularat Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: CHG), resulting from the Social Security (SS) payment shortfall witnessed in 4Q24.
The analyst stated that PR9 is likely to exhibit a strong year-over-year growth trajectory thanks to surging demand from international patients, bouncing back robustly from a low base. Meanwhile, BCH and CHG are predicted to experience a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery as revenues from Social Security payments return to usual levels.
The year-on-year growth trajectory for BCH and CHG should notably strengthen in the second quarter of 2025, with further acceleration by the fourth quarter, given the lower baseline. These factors position both companies as KKPS’s top picks.
As for Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited (SET: BDMS), the company is projected to announce a pre-exceptional net profit of THB 4.48 billion in 1Q25, marking a 10% rise year-on-year and a 3% increase quarter-on-quarter. Such results are anticipated to represent 25% of the analyst’s full-year forecast. Revenue is expected to climb by 6% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, fueled by a surge in international patient demand associated with increased tourist arrivals.
Revenue from domestic clients is set to rise in the low single digits year-on-year, while income from international patients could grow in the low-to-mid teens year-on-year. Margins are also anticipated to be bolstered by reduced tax expenses linked to recent investments, lifting the pre-exceptional net profit margin to 15.9% in 1Q25, compared to 15.3% in 1Q24 and 15.8% in 4Q24. BDMS is expected to exhibit slight improvements after the previous quarter, driven by seasonal factors. The analyst upholds a ‘Neutral’ rating from the company.
Conversely, Bumrungrad Hospital Public Company Limited (SET: BH) is forecasted to report a pre-exceptional net profit of THB 1.85 billion for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 6% decline year-on-year and a 2% dip quarter-on-quarter. These results are projected to account for 23% of the analyst’s full-year projections. Revenue is anticipated to drop by 6% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, largely due to a dip in Kuwaiti patient numbers and the Ramadan period’s shift by 10 days (from March 11-April 9 in 2024 to March 1-30 in 2025).
While domestic patient revenue is expected to grow year-on-year, international patient revenue might decline, following a similar trend observed in the second half of 2024. The margin is expected to remain stable at approximately 30.1% in 1Q25, slightly down from 30.2% in 1Q24 but an improvement on 29.2% in 4Q24. An upswing for BH’s operations is projected for the latter half of 2025, building on a lower base due to a significant reduction in revenue from Kuwaiti patients starting in late February 2024. The analyst maintains a ‘Buy’ recommendation for the company.
