JPMorgan has raised its gold price forecast, predicting the precious metal could reach $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026, with an average price of $3,675 per ounce anticipated by the fourth quarter of 2025.
This bullish outlook is driven by several key factors, including potential recession and stagflation risks spurred by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and robust, continuous demand from central banks expected to total 900 tonnes in 2025.
Moreover, investor interest, particularly from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and China, remains strong. The investment bank suggests that maintaining an upward price trajectory will require around 350 tonnes of quarterly demand from investors and central banks, with each additional 100 tonnes potentially driving a 2% increase in gold prices per quarter.
In the current geopolitical climate, instability and shifting alliances bolster gold’s appeal as a haven asset. Concerns about U.S. policy, alongside uncertainties surrounding U.S. Treasuries, are enhancing gold’s allure to investors seeking safety.
New drivers contributing to gold’s rising trajectory include Chinese insurers allowed to invest in gold, potentially adding around 250 tonnes to demand, as well as a strong retail gold market in China amidst expectations of a weakening yuan.
Meanwhile, potential headwinds to this forecast include a swift resolution of global trade disputes and a robust U.S. economy that could prompt unexpected Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Despite volatility, investor futures positioning is generally supportive, with ETFs reporting substantial inflows totaling approximately 324 tonnes by mid-April 2025.
