Krungsri Securities (KSS) has projected that PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited (SET: OR) will report a net profit of approximately THB 3.8 billion for the first quarter of 2025, representing a 2% increase year-over-year and a 27% rise quarter-over-quarter.
This positive outlook persists despite a contraction in total fuel sales volume, primarily due to an 8% quarter-on-quarter decline in market share at OR’s service stations, a drop sharper than the market average of 4%.
Nevertheless, the Mobility business segment—especially the commercial sector such as Jet fuel—continues to deliver robust gross profit per unit, offsetting the decline in overall sales.
Meanwhile, the Lifestyle segment showed significant improvement, attributed to the closure of unprofitable units and reductions in operational expenditures such as outsourcing and marketing costs.
Additionally, the Global business segment benefited from a recovery in sales volume within the Philippine market.
Looking ahead, the securities firm expects second-quarter earnings in 2025 to decrease from the first quarter, citing main reasons such as anticipated stock losses in the Mobility segment, increased use of promotional campaigns to stimulate sales, and a slowdown in the commercial segment aligned with softer Jet fuel prices.
Despite these headwinds, KSS maintained its full-year 2025 profit estimate and reiterated a “Buy” recommendation with a target price of THB 17.0 per share.
The brokerage sees potential for further recovery in OR’s Mobility business driven by improved marketing margins stemming from decreased oil costs and gradual improvement in the Oil Fund’s negative status. If first-half results meet expectations, they will account for roughly 50-55% of the full-year forecast.
