Jitipol Puksamatanan, Head of Global Investment Strategy at Finansia Syrus Securities (FSS), views Moody’s recent revision of Thailand’s outlook to “Negative” as a sentiment-driven downside risk, but affirms that the country’s financial position remains fundamentally strong.
Jitipol noted that historically and statistically, changes in credit outlooks have had minimal material impact on Thailand. The more significant indicator remains the Sovereign Credit Rating, which Moody’s has maintained at Baa1. This rating reflects Thailand’s continued ability to meet its principal and interest obligations. However, he cautioned that a credit rating can be downgraded to junk status instantly in times of crisis, regardless of whether a negative outlook had been issued beforehand.
He added that Moody’s move should be interpreted as a warning signal to the Thai government. It reflects concerns that current development efforts may not sufficiently support the country’s long-term debt repayment capacity and suggests that the agency expects a potential slowdown in future economic expansion.
Jitipol pointed out that the downgrade in outlook may have been prompted by recent revisions to Thailand’s growth forecasts. Both the IMF and the World Bank have reduced their 2025 GDP growth projections to below 2%, down from previous estimates of around 3%. He also noted that recent economic policies have fallen short of driving the level of growth the country needs.
He expressed concern over Thailand’s lack of a clear strategic roadmap to stimulate GDP growth, echoing Moody’s view. The government’s plans to borrow more to support the economy could repeat patterns seen in recent years—accumulating debt without generating sufficient returns.
To restore the outlook to “Stable,” Jitipol believes Thailand must aim to boost economic growth back to the 3–4% range. Doing so would help rebuild investor confidence, particularly if such growth could be achieved without over-reliance on exports. He also emphasized the importance of demonstrating that public borrowing is yielding returns and helping the government break even on its investments.
Regarding the potential impact of the “Negative” outlook on borrowing costs, Jitipol stated that the effect is minimal. Thailand remains largely self-financed and does not rely heavily on foreign borrowing. Moreover, similar outlook downgrades are occurring globally, and several of Thailand’s neighbors retain a “Stable” outlook simply because their credit ratings are already lower.
