Even after last week’s central bank rate decisions, the economic calendar is still packed with crucial economic indicators mainly on the US and the CPIs from various nations. The inflation data and treasury bond rates would be a main focus on this week.
Starting on Monday (25 Sep), there are several scheduled speeches and meeting minutes from few central banks, such as President Christine Lagarde and Executive board Isabel Schnabel from European Central Bank (ECB), President of Minneapolis’ US Federal Reserve (FED) Neel Kashkari and Bank of Korea (BoK)’s financial stability board meeting minutes.
Furthermore, there’ll be a publication of CPI from Singapore with 4% YoY expectation as the previous month, and German Ifo business climate indices with a slightly lower expectation from last month as well.
On Tuesday (26 Sep), some US key economic indicators will be published today such as the monthly Conference Board (CB)’s Consumer Confidence which is expected at a slightly lower of 105.9 from 106.1.
Also, the housing indicators like building permits were expected to be slightly higher from the previous week at 1.443 million to 1.543 million, while the new home sales were expected to lower slightly from 714k to 700k.
In addition, the US 2-year note will be auctioned on the same day as the latest rate was slightly over 5% at 5.024%. There are also the publication of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary policy meeting minutes, and the Core CPI publication at the expectation of almost no change at 3.2%.
On Wednesday (27 Sep), there’ll be data coming from both the US and EU. US core durable goods orders are expected at near zero compared to 0.4% in the previous month.
US Crude oil inventories from EIA has no expectation but the recent weeks of negative is pointing to the lower demand and economic activities. Also, a US 5-year note will be auctioned today as well. With the latest 4.4% that is still lower than the 2-year’s, the yield curve is still in the reverse unless the 5-year auctioned at higher.
Meanwhile, the German Consumer confidence equivalent, the Gfk Consumer climate indices will be expected at the same level of -25.5 as last month. Also, the German 10-year bund will be auctioned on the same day with the latest rate at 2.63%, during the ECB non-monetary policy meeting.
Lastly, the Russian GDP is expected at 4% YoY, down from the previous 5% in last month as the country spent more time in the Ukraine conflict. Also, the unemployment rate is expected to stand at 3%.
Thursday (28 Sep) will be the busiest day as the FED chair, Jerome Powell scheduled to speak, and the FED Balance sheet will be published on the same day as the latest was over $8 trillion, a tighten down from $9 trillion. Both should confirm the tightening direction of US monetary policy as many would be curious on “till when?” question.
US Q2 GDP growth will be published on the same day as well, with the expectation of 2.2% QoQ or a slightly higher from 2% in the latest quarter. US initial jobless claims also, expected at the same day with higher expectation of 217k from 201k.
In addition, the 4-week, 8-week and 7-year bills and notes will be auctioned today as well. The latest rate was 5.28%, 5.3% and 4.212%, respectively. This showed the bond market valued the near-term debts more than the longer one, meaning they’d expected more hike in the last month and would persist if the rate relations won’t change.
On the other hand, Germany expected its inflation from CPI at almost no change on MoM but 4.5% YoY in September compared to 6.1% in previous month. Spanish CPI is expected at 3.5% YoY, a higher from the previous month at 2.6%.
The Japanese CPI is waiting for the Tokyo core CPI to be published. The expectation is that it will be lowered to 2.6% YoY from the previous 2.8% in last month. Also, Japanese industrial production is expected to be less negative at -0.8% from the latest -1.8% MoM.
And lastly, the Caixin or Chinese HSBC composite PMI is scheduled from Thursday through Saturday, the latest survey indices was around 51 and has been trending down throughout this year.
On Friday (29 Sep), the UK statistics office will publish the GDP growth at the expectation of 0.4% YoY from 0.2% in last quarter. In recent years, the UK has been in an economic storm after the pandemic, Brexit and political issues. The country usually had an under 2% YoY GDP growth for a decade now.
On the other hand, US PCE or another inflation indicator from the price index that measures the price of domestic consumption, is expected to slightly increase to 3.5% YoY from the previous month at 3.3%. Meanwhile, EU CPI is expected to decrease to 4.6% YoY from 5.2% in the previous month.
