This week’s economic calendar from 2-6 October is packed with many PMIs surveys from many countries, while some of central banks scheduled their interest rate decisions, and also governments or treasury bill/note/bond auctions on this week as well.
Starting on Monday (2 Oct), the most anticipated number from the US is September ISM PMIs, as the manufacturing PMI is expected to be almost the same as previous month at 47.7.
Meanwhile, the FED chair J. Powell is scheduled to speak, along with the Philadelphia FOMC member Patrick Harker and FOMC member Mester. Both public engagements might signal future monetary policy action, especially the rate hike that Powell mentioned weeks ago. The statements would also give an economic outlook from the FED perspective as well.
But in another perspective, the weekly 3 and 6-month bill auction rate would give another view from the very short-term bond market. Should the rates continue to climb over 5.3%, the reverse bond yield curve that some used to gauge the recession would continue to deepen. In addition, Japan’s government 10-year bond will be auctioned on the same day as well, which has been trending up since July to 0.657% in the previous month.
On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would decide the country’s interest rate. Australia has held the rate at 4.1% since July. Also, UK’s Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) will be published on the same day as well. The YoY expectation is negative at 5.7%, deeper from the previous month at negative 5.3%.
On Tuesday (3 Oct), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will decide the nation’s interest rate. The New Zealand rate had been standing at 5.5% since late May of this year, which is also the expectation in this decision as well.
Meanwhile, a survey of US JOLTs Job openings by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected at the same level as the previous month at 8.83 million openings. US job vacancies have been trending down since mid-year of 2022 at almost 12 million openings, according to JOLTs past data.
Also, Japan service PMI from au Jibun Bank is expected at 53.3, a lower reading from the previous month at 54.3. The index is hardly higher than 55 in recent years.
On Wednesday (4 Oct), many countries will publish their service PMIs, including US, UK, EU, Russia, Brazil and Hong Kong. There’re still not many forecasts yet, but only Germany and the EU are expected to rise near 50, which is the level separating from growth and contraction.
Meanwhile, there’s still many numbers that will be published including US weekly crude oil inventories, Australia’s trade balance, EU’s PPI and South Korea’s CPI.
Also, UK’s 2-year treasury Glit and Japan government 30-year bond will be auctioned today as well. The latest auction rate for 2-year Gilt is at 5.272%, while the Japanese 30-year bond is at 1.64%.
On Thursday (5 Oct), there’ll be a publication of the FED balance sheet, which will show the size of monetary tightening by the FED. Meanwhile, the US, Canada and Germany will publish their trade balances, which would give some insight on these countries’ foreign trades.
Japan household spending is expected to be less negative 4.3% from 5% YoY. As for Australia, the MoM retail sales are expected to decline to 0.2% from the previous 0.5%, and RBA will publish a financial stability review on the same day as well.
On Friday (6 Oct), India’s monetary authority will decide the country’s interest rate. The south Asia nation has stood its rate at 6.5% since February this year as the nation is facing food inflation lately.
There’ll be many employment and unemployment numbers from Switzerland, Canada and US, including average hourly earnings, payrolls, unemployment and participation rates.
Finally, the weekly CFTC speculation net position of derivatives trading such as currencies, commodities and futures indices, would be published on the same day as well. These net positions would roughly give a future expectation of the direction of these underlying assets.
