On Thursday, the World Bank stated that it expected Thailand’s economic growth to be at 2.5% this year and 3.2% in 2024, decreasing from the estimation in October of 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively.
Though the growth outlook in 2023 slumped due to the down trend in exports and ongoing fiscal consolidation, the country should see a slow recovery in tourism, exports, and private consumption sectors, according to the World Bank.
Tourism and private consumption are the key parts of economic growth in Thailand as tourism is expected to return to the pre-pandemic level by mid-2025 due to a delayed recovery of Chinese tourists. The economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025.
The deployment of digital wallet schemes could stimulate short-term growth by 0.5 to 1 percentage point over the period of 2024 and 2025.
As a result, the world bank concluded that Thailand’s fiscal deficit and public debt could potentially rise to 4%-5% of GDP and 65%-66% of GDP, respectively.
The current geopolitical conflict and rising oil prices had shown some signals of downside risks to the growth outlook of Thailand.
