The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global growth forecast slightly higher on Tuesday, stating that the economy has demonstrated notable resilience despite challenges such as inflationary pressures and shifts in monetary policy.
According to the latest update, the IMF now anticipates a global growth rate of 3.2% for 2024, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous January projection. This growth forecast aligns with the projection for 2023, with further expansion expected to continue at a rate of 3.2% in 2025.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, highlighted that these findings indicate a potential “soft landing” for the global economy post various economic crises, with risks to the outlook now seen as more balanced.
While advanced economies, particularly the United States and the euro zone, are poised to drive growth, concerns linger over China and other major emerging market economies which could impact global trade dynamics, as per the IMF report.
The IMF also foresees a decline in global headline inflation from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and further to 4.5% in 2025. It is anticipated that advanced economies will reach their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies.
Despite the relatively positive outlook unveiled on Tuesday, global growth rates remain subdued by historical standards, marked by weak productivity growth and increased geopolitical fragmentation. The IMF’s five-year forecast projects global growth at 3.1%, representing one of the lowest levels witnessed in decades.
