Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has left the possibility of an interest rate increase in July open, despite market doubts following the announcement of a forthcoming reduction in bond buying as part of quantitative tightening measures.
Ueda emphasized that the reduction in bond purchases and a policy rate hike are distinct matters, with the decision on a rate hike depending on economic data, inflation levels, and financial conditions.
While a third of BOJ analysts surveyed by Bloomberg earlier in the month anticipated a rate hike in July, most expected a reduction in bond purchases to be announced on June 14. Although the reduction was confirmed, details of the matter will only be revealed after the board meeting on July 31.
Ueda’s affirmation during a press conference that a rate hike in July is a possibility based on data helped alleviate pressure on the yen. However, some economists remain skeptical, with several revising their predictions for a hike or reducing the likelihood of a move in July, citing the simultaneous unveiling of a quantitative tightening plan and a rate hike as overly aggressive.
Regarding the scale of the bond purchase cuts, Ueda provided little insight on Tuesday. His previous mention of a significant reduction sparked speculation among bond traders, yet no further details were disclosed during his parliamentary remarks.
Market observers are closely analyzing Ueda’s comments on interest rates to determine whether he is genuinely hinting at a rate hike or simply cautioning currency speculators to alleviate pressure on the yen. Given Ueda’s background as an academic, it is possible that his statements are merely theoretical in nature.
