Thailand’s Ministry of Finance has revised its economic growth forecast for 2024 to 2.7%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4%, citing increased foreign tourist arrivals and exports as contributing factors.
Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul highlighted positive signs in exports, driven by improving economic conditions in trading partner countries, and expressed optimism that growth could reach 3% this year with the implementation of pending policies.
The forecasted growth does not take into account the 450 billion baht ($12.5 billion) cash stimulus program scheduled for the fourth quarter, which is expected to boost growth by 1.2 to 1.8 percentage points. The Ministry anticipates a 2.7% increase in exports in 2024, surpassing the previous projection of 2.4%.
With tourism playing a crucial role in Thailand’s economy, the Ministry foresees 36 million foreign arrivals in 2024, who are anticipated to prolong their stays and increase spending by an estimated 1.69 trillion baht, aided by relaxed visa regulations. This marks an improvement from the earlier forecast of 35.7 million arrivals and projected expenditures of 1.59 trillion baht.
Following a 1.9% growth in 2023, below initial expectations and lower than the 2.5% growth recorded in 2022, the Ministry expects the Thai baht to trade at an average of 36.2 baht per dollar, slightly depreciating from the April rate of 36 baht, attributed to capital outflows in the first half of the year.
