UK Economy Grows in 2Q24, Forecast to Slow Down Amid Persistently High Policy Rates

Official data revealed that the British economy expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024, aligning with predictions by economists. This growth built upon a 0.7% recovery in the first quarter following a mild recession in the latter part of 2023.

The Office for National Statistics reported that the GDP level in June remained steady, in line with expectations from a Reuters poll. Year-on-year, the GDP was 0.7% higher.

Still, economists anticipate a slowdown in growth during the latter part of 2024 due to the persistence of near 16-year high interest rates, despite a recent reduction by the Bank of England, as well as ongoing supply limitations and sluggish wage increases.

The Bank of England revised its annual growth forecast for 2024 from 0.5% to 1.25%, citing a stronger-than-expected start to the year and a projected 0.7% quarterly growth from April to June.

However, it has a less optimistic outlook for the rest of 2024, predicting a deceleration to 0.4% in the third quarter and 0.2% in the final quarter.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK economy has exhibited sluggish growth, with an overall expansion of merely 2.3% from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2024.