Due to slower recovery in tourist arrivals, the bread and butter of Thailand’s income other than exports that recorded a small growth, the kingdom is at risk of falling behind its neighbouring countries in terms of economic growth as the latest projection by the IMF reaffirmed the outlook.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its GDP growth forecasts for Thailand, revising figures downwards by 0.1 percentage point for both this year and the next. The IMF now anticipates Thailand’s economy to expand by 2.8% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025, with long-term growth projected at 2.7% by 2029.
In contrast, Vietnam is set to be the fastest-growing economy among major ASEAN countries, with expectations of 6.0% growth in 2024 and 6.8% in 2025. The Philippines isn’t far behind, with projected growth of 5.8% in 2024 and 6.1% the following year. For both countries, strong economic performance is expected to persist, achieving growth rates between 6.0% and 6.3% annually through 2029.
Indonesia, ASEAN’s largest economy, is predicted to grow at a steady 5.0% in 2024 and 5.1% in 2025, maintaining this rate through 2029. This reflects the country’s enduring economic resilience. Meanwhile, Malaysia is poised for a robust rebound, with a forecasted growth of 4.8% in 2024, up from 3.6% this year. Although growth may moderate slightly to 4.4% in 2025, it remains strong, with long-term projections at 4.0%.
In the global context, the US economy is expected to grow by 2.8% this year, a slight dip from the 2.9% seen in 2023, yet an improvement from the earlier 2.6% forecast for 2024 back in July. This growth has been driven by strong consumer spending buoyed by gains in inflation-adjusted wages. However, the US economy is anticipated to slow to 2.2% growth next year.
China’s economic growth is projected to decelerate from 5.2% last year to 4.8% this year, and further down to 4.5% by 2025. The country faces challenges with a struggling housing market and dampened consumer confidence, countered somewhat by robust exports.
India, confident in its strong economic trajectory, is expected to grow by 7% this year and 6.5% in 2025. Although these figures represent a slowdown from the 8.2% growth seen last year, the pace reflects tempered consumer spending post-pandemic boom.
Japan’s economy, hindered by issues in the automotive sector and a slowdown in tourism, is anticipated to see minimal growth of 0.3% this year, before accelerating to 1.1% in 2025.
Lastly, the United Kingdom projects a modest recovery with 1.1% growth this year, improving from a mere 0.3% in 2023, aided by falling interest rates and increased consumer spending.
