China reported a surge in retail sales and a dip in real estate investment for October, indicating the success of recent stimulus measures in bolstering certain sectors of its weakening economy.
Retail sales experienced a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, surpassing the anticipated 3.8% growth from economists polled by Reuters, and marking an increase from September’s 3.2% growth.
Conversely, industrial production saw only a 5.3% year-on-year expansion, falling short of the predicted 5.6% rise. Meanwhile, year-to-date fixed-asset investment grew by 3.4% compared to last year, slower than the forecasted 3.5%.
Real estate investment from January to October decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, a sharper fall than the 10.1% decline recorded from January to September, indicating the worsening condition of the property market and marking the most significant drop since August 2021.
On a positive note, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, Fu Linghui, reaffirmed China’s commitment made in late September to curtail the fall in its real estate market. He expressed optimism about the sector, describing it as witnessing “active improvement.”
Looking forward, Bruce Pang, JLL’s chief economist and research head for Greater China, suggests that real estate investment could stabilize and somewhat recover over the next 12 to 18 months. In fact, new property sales already showed some signs of improvement in October.
In addition, investments in infrastructure and manufacturing experienced a slight uptick in October, and urban unemployment rates also fell marginally. Nonetheless, authorities warned of continuous domestic and international challenges and emphasized boosting policy implementation.
In response to recent sluggishness, Chinese authorities have accelerated stimulus measures since late September. This has included interest rate cuts, extension of real estate support, and a five-year 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program to tackle local government debts, boosting investor confidence.
