In its latest Development Outlook report, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its growth projection for Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the current year, while maintaining the estimates for the succeeding year.
This year’s forecast has seen an upsurge from the initial 2.3% to 2.6% for Thailand, with next year’s growth remaining static at 2.7%. Meanwhile, prospects of economic expansion for developing Asia, encompassing 46 Asia-Pacific nations, show a decline with the predictions now standing at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.8% for the coming year, exhibiting a drop from previous projections of 5.0% and 4.9%, respectively.
This reduction in growth forecasts for developing Asia is attributed to feeble economic performance by certain economies in the third quarter, coupled with a dampened outlook for consumption.
China’s growth forecasts remain consistent at 4.8% for 2024, which is below Beijing’s target for 5% expansion. ADB expects the world’s second largest economy to exhibit a 4.5% growth in 2025. Conversely, India’s projected growth has been trimmed, with estimates landing at 6.5% from 7.0% for 2024, and 7.0% from 7.2% for the subsequent year.
The ADB also underlined the potential economic impact of policy shifts by the US, specifically in trade, fiscal, and immigration areas. Any sudden changes made by the incoming administration could adversely affect growth and stoke inflation in developing Asia. However, the ADB predicts that most impacts are expected to come into play beyond the 2024-2025 forecast horizon.
Worries about greater US policy swings than currently anticipated, escalating geopolitical uncertainties, and further weakening of China’s property market underline the persisting downside risks, as noted by the ADB. Owing to dwindling global commodity prices, inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised downward to 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, from earlier predictions of 2.8% and 2.9%.
