The World Bank estimated the expansion of Thailand’s economy in 2025 by 2.9%, down from 3.0% projected in October but still higher from 2.6% growth in 2024. This expansion is largely supported by the higher domestic demand and the economic stimulation from the Ministry of Finance.
As for the inflation this year, the World Bank estimated its rate to remain at 0.8%, which is below the rate between 1% and 3% expected by the Bank of Thailand.
As for the tourism sector, the World Bank speculated that by the middle of the year, the sector will recover to the pre-pandemic level. The number of foreign tourists should increase from 35.3 million in 2024 to 41 million in 2025, which will be higher than the highest record of nearly 40 million made in 2019.
Meanwhile, private consumption will receive a benefit from the economic stimulus, especially from the phase one of the Digital wallet scheme. However, the deleveraging cycle and stringent lending measures from commercial banks will weigh on consumption.
Thai exports, however, are estimated to slow down slightly due to a slow growth in key markets, such as the US and China, despite the growth of the world’s e-commerce market.
The World Bank’s Thailand Economic Monitor stated that to enhance the resilience for the ministry amid high government spending, Thailand needs to focus on its support of the society correctly, increase revenue from tax collection, and accelerate the investment of the government sector in infrastructure, technology, and human resource. These actions will stimulate the development of the private sector.
