Japan faces a potential economic fallout of up to $1.81 trillion if a long-anticipated megaquake occurs off its Pacific coast.
The report, released by the Japanese government on Monday, highlighted an envisioned scenario for destructive tsunamis, mass building collapses, and a staggering death toll of around 300,000 people.
The anticipated economic damage, calculated at JPY 270.3 trillion, marks a significant increase from previous estimates of JPY 214.2 trillion.
This revision incorporates inflationary trends and updated geographical assessments, which highlight expanded flood zones.
Japan, being one of the world’s most earthquake-prone nations, estimates an 80% likelihood of a magnitude 8 to 9 quake striking along the Nankai Trough, a seismic hotspot.
A worst-case magnitude 9 quake could force 1.23 million people, or about 1% of Japan’s population, into evacuation. If such an event occurs in winter during nighttime, fatalities from tsunamis and structural failures could reach as high as 298,000.
This trench runs approximately 900 km (600 miles) off Japan’s southwestern coast, where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate. Historical seismic activity suggests such a megaquake could transpire every 100 to 150 years.
In response, Japan issued its first-ever megaquake advisory last year, indicating an elevated risk of a magnitude 9 event following a magnitude-7.1 tremor along the trough’s boundary.
The memory of Japan’s vulnerability remains fresh, recalling the magnitude 9 earthquake in 2011 that unleashed a catastrophic tsunami and triggered meltdowns at a nuclear facility, culminating in over 15,000 deaths.
