Asian Development Bank (ADB) has published its Thailand outlook in 2025 with an increase in GDP forecast this year to reach 2.8%, a slight uptick from its earlier expectation of 2.7%.
The Thai economy is projected to maintain its growth momentum, with a GDP expansion of 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. Tourism will remain the primary driver of this economic growth, with tourist arrivals expected to rise to 39.5 million in 2025 and 41 million in 2026. This growth in tourism will be supported by visa-free schemes, rising demand, expanded airline routes, and increased flight frequencies.
However, private consumption is expected to slow to 2.7% in 2025 due to high household debt burdens. This slowdown may be partly countered by fiscal stimulus measures, such as personal income tax deductions and cash handouts, as well as debt relief programs. Despite strong services employment supporting household income, weak employment in manufacturing remains a concern. Financial institutions are also likely to maintain strict lending criteria, further contributing to the consumption slowdown.
Merchandise exports are anticipated to grow modestly in line with global trade, greater foreign demand, and an upturn in the electronics cycle. Key export products will likely remain electronics, automotive parts, and agricultural goods, with agricultural exports potentially rising due to sufficient water and favorable prices for crops like rice. However, renewed U.S.-China trade tensions pose a risk to export growth.
Private investment is expected to increase as merchandise exports rebound and public investment accelerates. Public spending will continue to support growth in 2025 and 2026, with budget disbursements returning to normal, allowing for progress on infrastructure projects such as the Laem Chabang Port Phase 3 and railway developments.
Inflation is forecast to remain low, staying within the 1%–3% target range, with a projected increase of 1.0% this year and 1.1% next year. The government is expected to continue cutting electricity prices to reduce the cost of living.
Despite the positive outlook, risks are tilted to the downside, primarily due to uncertainty surrounding new U.S. trade policies that could affect merchandise exports and foreign direct investment. Persistently high household debt, which remains above the critical 80% level, and the slow income recovery among vulnerable populations could also challenge private consumption and investment. The quality of household debt has also deteriorated, with increasing special mention and non-performing loans. Safety concerns among Chinese tourists also emerged briefly, but their long-term impact remains to be seen.
