B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited (SET: BGRIM) announced an increase in total revenue by 34% in 2022, boosted by an increase in tariffs, a recovery in consumption after Covid pandemic subsided, growths from hydro projects in Laos and commenced operation of 16 MW wind projects in Thailand.
Despite its flourishing operating performance, the bottom line was hindered by a sharp increase in natural gas cost by 65% for the year, while cost of sales and services in 2022 rose 48% as well as a write-off in SPP assets, resulting in a net loss of 1,244 million baht of the year.
Still, Dr. Harald Link, President and Director of BGRIM, maintained his sights on expansions and partnerships in both domestic and international as seen by the signing with Amata Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: AMATA) and Malaysia’s TNB Power Generation earlier this year.
The president noted that the company is moving forward toward its installed capacity target of 4,700 MW by 2024, which is achievable by the commence operations from its SPPs while targeting to increase the number of IU clients.
The company is committed to Net-Zero Carbon Emission by 2050.
2023 Outlook
- Pursuing New Greenfield and Brownfield Projects with 4,700 MW operating capacity by 2024
- The scheduled commercial operations the SPP replacement BGPM2R, U-Tapao hybrid power plant and 2 new SPPs (BGPAT2&3) with total capacity of 438 MW
- Targeting new industrial users (IU) with 50-60 MW total PPA
- Implementing expense control programs to save at least THB 50-70 million
- Increasing Ft charge from 0.9343 THB/kWh to 1.5492 THB/kWh inJan-Apr 2023
- SPP gas cost guideline of THB400-450/MMBTU from THB 476/MMBTU in 2022
The majority of analysts maintained “BUY” recommendations on BGRIM after the announcement of earnings results, seeing it had bottomed out and will start to recover in 2023.
KGI Securities maintained “Outperform” rating on BGRIM with a target price at THB46.00 per share.
KGI stated that BGRIM inked a 4Q22 net loss of 545 million baht, aligning with its forecast, but missing the market’s estimate. Key highlights were stronger operation of SPPs following the Ft rate hike versus lower gas prices.
KGI remained upbeat on BGRIM’s 1Q23 core profit, which is expected to rise further QoQ. Given BGRIM’s aggressive strategy, there should be some acquisitions in 2023. Key re-rating catalysts should arise from 2023-24F earnings skyrocketing coupled with BGRIM’s aggressive strategy.
Tisco Securities also maintained its BUY rating with DCF-based (WACC: 5%) target price of THB47.00 per share on BGRIM. The 2023e earnings are based on a gas feedstock cost of Bt486/mmbtu and power tariff of Bt5.28/KWh.
Core earnings momentum should further improve in 1Q23e, according to Tisco Securities. The global LNG price (JKM) has weakened, and Thailand is becoming less dependent on expensive LNG imports thanks to better domestic gas volume. In addition, the non-residential power tariff for January-April 2023 will be raised a further 14% from the September-December 2022 rate to Bt5.33/KWh.
Key downside risks are 1) no decision on power tariff hike, 2) facility interruption, and 3) gas price rise.
Asia Plus Securities maintained its estimates on BGRIM with a target price at THB48.00 per share, seeing 1Q23 growth to continue on rising Ft and easing gas costs. Overall, electricity sales should recover. The company also issued an interim dividend payout of THB0.035 per share.
The momentum for its normalized profit should gradually increase after bottoming out in 3Q22, while the current share price also has 23% upside, which is recommended for a long-term investment.
The target price of BGRIM according to Refinitiv consensus is THB47.50 per share with nine analysts recommended “BUY”, while three recommended “Hold” and one recommended “Sell”.
