The share price of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP), a petroleum production arm of Thailand’s state-owned oil and energy company PTT, fell 19% this year, which is lower than the whole market that plunged 5%.
Stock prices plunged as low as THB 136.00 per share earlier this week, which prompted analysts to see this as an opportunity to enter with a positive 1Q23 outlook, boosted by an increase in crude oil price to support.
PTTEP’s P/BV is 1.1x, while currently holding an abundance of cash on hand as high as 120 billion baht. The company also offers 6.5% dividend yields.
Oil sales this year are expected to reach 470 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), which is an increase from 468 billion BOE last year.
Land and Houses Securities (LHS) stated that PTTEP has plummeted to the point that it is attractive to accumulate as the share price dropped 19% year-to-date, compared to Thai bourse SET Index and crude oil prices that fell 5%.
Meanwhile, oil demand in the market remains strong and the company is increasing its gas portfolio to 73% from 65% as gas prices normally are steadier than oil prices.
The winnings for the exploration field G1/65 and G3/65 will also boost its business significantly while having lower costs.
LHS gave a “BUY” recommendation on PTTEP with a target price at THB 176.00 per share.
Late January, Innovest X Securities (INVX) made an analytic research on PTTEP after the financial statement of 4Q22 was released that beat INVX estimates.
INVS noted that it expected PTTEP’s core profit to fall 14.2% YoY off the high base in 2022 on lower oil price assumptions (US$92/bbl for Brent and US$90/bbl for Dubai vs. US$100 and US$97). Adding this to a higher proportion of gas sales volume under the new production sharing contracts for G1/61 (Erawan) and G2/61 (Bongkot), INVX expected a 3% YoY slice off PTTEP’s ASP to US$51.8/BOE. The DCF-based TP (end-2023) is maintained at THB 206.00 per share, based on L/T Dubai of US$68/bbl and Brent of US$70/bbl from 2025F.
