1) Thai stock market overview
Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,606.91 points, increased 13.54 points or 0.85% with a trading value of 44 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market edged higher in response to the easing tension in the U.S. banking crisis after First Citizens BancShares completed the takeover of Silicon Valley Bank, boosting the sentiment in Thai banking stocks.
The analyst recommended investors to monitor the Bank of Thailand’s decision on policy rate at the meeting tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Thai stock market still lacks positive drivers.
2) World Bank warns global economy risks “Lost Decade”
The World Bank warned that the global economy could enter a “lost decade,” with growth set to plummet to a three-decade low of 2.2% through 2030, if policymakers don’t take bold action to increase labor supply, productivity, and investment.
In the World Bank’s new report, it warned that the world’s capability to combat climate change and eradicate poverty would be severely hindered if the anticipated broad-based decline in potential GDP growth was allowed to continue unabated.
However, the analysis found that integrated efforts to increase investment in environmentally friendly industries, reduce trade costs, leverage development in services, and increase labor force participation may increase growth potential by as much as 0.7 percentage points, to 2.9%.
World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said that “a lost decade could be in the making for the global economy,” but that the situation could be turned around with the help of policies that encouraged work, boosted productivity, and sped up investment.
Potential GDP growth was predicted to slow to 2.2% from 2022-2030, down from 2.6% in 2011-21 and by roughly a third from the 3.5% seen from 2000-2010.
3) Tourism Sector Gets Overweight Rating as Foreign Visitors Continue to Pour into Thailand
The number of tourist arrivals in Thailand increased more than tenfold between January 1 and mid-March 2023, suggesting that the tourism sector is steadily improving. Hence, Bualuang Securities continues to assign a “Overweight” rating to the Thai tourism sector, with the expectation that sector stocks will outperform the key primary market index within the next 12 months.
Between January 1 and March 18, 2023, Thailand welcomed 5,578,721 international visitors, which is about half of the 11.5 million tourists that arrived in the country in 2022. This generated over THB200 billion in tourism earnings in just nearly 3 months.
Since December of last year, Thailand has averaged more than 2 million international visitors a month, before reaching 2.11 million in February, a month after China fully reopened its border. Thailand also reported a 69% increase in Chinese visitors month over month in February. Bualuang Securities anticipates that the monthly increase in inbound tourists will continue in March, mainly boosted by Chineses visitors. BLS recommended CENTEL and MINT.
