FSS International Investment Advisory has made a quick note on the bidding for 5.2GW renewable projects from the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), expecting additional gains in the bottom line of those who won the projects.
Yesterday, ERC announced the final approved bidders for 5.2GW renewable which turned out to be only a total 4.85GW capacity eligible for this round. ERC also announced the final winners for 100MW industrial waste power.
In this round at least seven companies as far as the report goes have won the capacities, including GULF (+2.5GW), GUNKUL (+0.8GW), SSP (+170MW), ETC and BWG (+80MW), BGRIM (+340MW), ACE (+112MW), RATCH (+27MW).
FSSIA stated that it is positive on the growth outlook of the winners which include;
1) GULF (+THB5 billion to net profit, +2GW) with an estimated total winning capacity over 2GW, comprising wind, solar, and solar plus battery. FSSIA estimated a combined additional net profit of THB3-5b annually to GULF when all projects are completed within the next five years.
2) GUNKUL (+THB1.2 billion to net profit, +0.8GW) with an estimated total winning capacity of 800MW, of this 180MW wind and the remaining 6.2GW solar and solar plus battery.
FSSIA estimated EIRR of 14% for solar and 18% for wind. The high EIRR for solar projects come from the THB0.5/KWh premium paid for the solar projects in the 3 southernmost provinces.
3) SSP ( +THB 300 million, +170MW) with a total winning capacity of 170MW – 154MW solar and 16 MW wind. FSSIA estimated EIRR of 11% for solar and 14% for wind and net profit per mw of THB2m for solar and THB3m for wind
4) ETC and BWG (+THB1.6 billion to net profit, +80MW) wins over 80MW from 10 projects of the industrial waste power plants. FSSIA estimated EIRR of 18%-20% and net profit per MW of THB20-25m
5) BGRIM (+THB400 million to net profit, +340MW) with 300MW solar and 40MW wind. FSSIA estimated that solar farm will generate EIRR at 11% and wind at 15% and the net profit per MW of THB1m for solar and THB3m for wind
6) ACE (+THB110 million to net profit, +112MW) won 112MW solar farms from 18 projects mostly CODs in 2024-25. FSSIA estimated net profit per MW of slightly lower than THB1m.
7) RATCH (+THB100 million to net profit, +34MW) of wind farm.
Note that the estimated net profits and MWs are based on 100% stakes for the companies.
