1) Thai stock market overview
Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,565.10 points, decreased 15.63 points or 0.99% with a trading value of 57 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai market closed lower, pressured by the plummet of two top banks and energy stocks in response to falling oil prices. The analyst expected the Thai stock market to bounce back tomorrow after a series of declines.
2) Standard Chartered cuts Thai economic growth forecast to 4.3%
Standard Chartered Bank cut its growth forecast for the Thai economy on Thursday, predicting 4.3% growth for the year compared to a 4.5% growth expected earlier. The revised forecast reflects recent worse-than-expected economic data, a grimmer global growth outlook, and potential policy implementation delays during the political transition.
Inflation is anticipated to be 2.1%, a decrease from the 2.7% predicted previously. Core inflation is estimated at 1.7%, down from 3.3% earlier, and the current account surplus is forecast at 3.6% of GDP, down from 4.0% previously.
3) Reuters poll suggests U.S. Fed to deliver 25bps hike in May
A Reuters poll of economists suggested that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to deliver a final 25-basis-point interest rate hike in May and then leave rates unchanged for the remainder of 2023, signaling that a brief and shallow recession is probably to take place this year.
A recent Reuters poll found that about 90% – 94% of economists expected the Fed to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range at a meeting on May 2-3, in line with market pricing.
In addition, 59 out of 100 analysts predicted that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at least through this year. Similar to market expectations, only 26 respondents with a view to the end of 2023 predict a reduction, according to a Reuters poll on Wednesday.
4) Japan’s imports top outbound shipments in March amid slowdown in global demand
Japan’s export growth slowed in March, pressured by diminishing cars and steel shipments to China amid slowing down global demand from higher interest rates, fear of recession and banking crisis in the West.
In March, Japan’s imports rose 7.3%, largely below the estimate of an 11.4% increase and after an 8.3% expansion in the previous month. Meanwhile, exports rose 4.3% in March from a year earlier.
Growth from imports outpaced exports of the world’s third largest economy in March as cost of coal, crude and oil products fueled its annual trade deficit to a record 21.7 trillion yen.
