Apple has released the iPhone15 yesterday (12 Sep), which would be the biggest event in this week before the announcement of US inflation data on today. Many did not expect the new iPhone15 to have more exciting features as it’s likely to be a minor hardware and software upgrade aside from its shifting from the lighting port to the more general USB-C.
In recent years, some claimed that the share price of Apple (NASDAQ: APPL) has been trading at seasonally low in September and high in October as it shifted the debut of its new iPhone to September of each year. APPL dropped from $179 to $176 in last night (12 Sep) with P/E ratio at 30, which is not high compared to other technology stocks.
If the investor could buy APPL at the lowest point in September and sell at the highest point in October. The investor could potentially profit from APPL around 12.5% in October, according to latest 4-years average of September low and October high as follow.
In 2022, the September low is $138, the October high is $155, the 12% up.
In 2021, the September low is $142, the October high is $151, the 6% up.
In 2020, the September low is $106, the October high is $119, the 12% up.
In 2019, the September low is $53, the October high is $64, the 20% up.
Suppose that last night the APPL price of $176 is at this September low, Investor could expect APPL to go up over $197 in October if one could take a fully advantage of this seasonality.
On the other hand, If the investor held APPL at the end of August through the end of October, APPL would decline by 5.5% in September and would grow by 5.5% in October, according to latest 4-years average of percentage change of APPL closed price between each month as follow.
In 2022, APPL price declined by 12% in September but grew by 11% in October.
In 2021, APPL price declined by 7% in September but grew by 6% in October.
In 2020, APPL price declined by 10% in September and also declined by 6% in October.
In 2019, APPL price grew by 7% in September and also grew by 11% in October.
For this case, Investor could hold APPL at $187 from earlier 31 August or buy APPL at the last trading day of this September, then wait and see if the price could recover back to the same level or gain by 5.5% at the end of this October.
