PTT Oil and Retail Business PCL (SET: OR) is expecting its Q3 profit over 5 billion baht, a 600% YoY growth. The recording profit is contributed by both mobility and non-oil businesses, with 91% growth on profit per liter and giant stock gain. This caused many to speculate that OR might repurchase its stock with the excessive cash at almost 59 billion baht. Meanwhile, the analysts evaluated the OR price around 26 baht per share.
There were a few records in October when OR stock price fell below its IPO price. Yesterday, OR fell by 1.1% to exactly 18.00 baht with a trading volume of 161.7 million baht. Many hold a skeptic view that the current price of OR is not reflecting its real value yet, as OR’s CFO revealed that in the first half of 2023, OR made 387 billion baht of revenue and 5.731 billion baht of net profit.
Ms. Wilaiwan Kanjanakanti, the CFO of OR said the company will shine brightly in the second half of 2023. The “Mobility” part which made up 90% business of OR and the rest “Lifestyle” part are both showing a good sign as OR expands globally.
This is the same direction as the analyst from Krungsri Capital Securities (KCS) that estimated OR’s Q3 net profit at 4.974 billion baht, a 610% YoY growth also. The analyst forecast OR’s Gross Margin (GM) per liter at 1.3 baht per liter, a 91% YoY increase, and also estimated oil sales from Mobility business at 6.758 billion liters, a 8% YoY increase from 21% growth on aircraft fuel sales as tourism recovered.
KCS analyst recommends “BUY” OR with 26.5 baht as a target price, citing the 9-month net profit estimate at 12.399 billion baht, a 17% YoY growth from the 12% growth on overseas oil sales at 418 million liters, the recovery of GM, stock gain, and low regulation risk on retail oil prices.
However, an analyst from KGI Securities gave a lower estimate at 4 billion baht net profit on Q3, a 477% YoY growth, from 6.8 billion liters oil sales and 5.6 billion baht on non-oil business, even in the low season that would reduced both by QoQ 2% and 1%, respectively. The analyst also estimated OR’s GM per liter at 1.18 baht per liter.
KGI analyst also recommends “BUY” OR with 25.50 baht as a target price, citing the P/E ratio of 25 from the increasing profit in Q3 and OR also have lower COCO (Company-Owned Company Operate) ratio than its peers
In addition, TISCO Securities estimated OR’s Q3 net profit at 5.02 billion baht, almost double the Q2 number of 2.76 billion baht and Q3 of 2022 at 701 million baht.
Lastly, the news source within OR’s financial advisor told Kaohoon that OR executive has planned a stock repurchasing, however there’s still no schedule or volume yet. The source said the fair price is at 25 baht per share, a 39% upside compared to current price.
