Analysts have positive views on Minor International Public Company Limited (SET: MINT) after the report of earnings results this week that showed the company recording strong core performance from the hotel segment.
MINT reported a net profit of Baht 2,143 million in 3Q23, decreased 53.48% from the same period of last year. The decrease was mainly due to losses from hedging and derivatives recorded in the quarter, as opposed to foreign exchange gains of the previous year.
Despite a weak bottomline, MINT continued to report strong core performance in 3Q23 as the overall core revenue growth of 12% YoY, reaching Baht 39,887 million, as a result of business improvement in hotel and restaurant portfolios. Hotels in Europe, Latin America and Thailand experienced the benefits of sustained surge in travel demand and room rates. Restaurants, particularly in Thailand saw stronger performance due to a revival of dine-in business.
Mr. Dillip Rajakarier, Group CEO of MINT, said that Minor Hotels is poised for further growth, benefitting from the strengthening global tourism industry, strong forward bookings, and increased travel activities. Meanwhile, market dominance and a winning brand portfolio remain central to Minor Food’s strategy, with a focus on elevating product and store experiences to capture a broader customer base.
“With this momentum, we look forward to strong year-over-year results in the next few quarters, particularly driven by hotel high season in Asia during 4Q23 and 1Q24,” said the CEO.
Daol Securities maintained its BUY recommendation for MINT while shifting the valuation base to 2024E. The DCF-based target price remains steady at THB40.00, using a WACC of 7% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%.
The brokerage company stated that, having achieved 78% of its previous forecast, DAOL adjusted our net profit forecasts. There is a 10% upward revision for 2023E, bringing it to Bt6.9 billion and indicating a significant +61% surge. The 2024E forecast, with a +3% upward revision, stands at Bt7.3 billion, suggesting a further +5% increase. These adjustments follow the revisions in RevPAR and SG&A to sales estimates. For 4Q23E, DAOL anticipated stronger YoY earnings growth in light of the peak tourist season in Thailand and Maldives.
Despite the 13% underperformance against the SET Index, MINT’s undervaluation at -2.0 SD below the 10-yr historical average presents an opportunity for increased investment, especially when compared to peers ERW and CENTEL, currently trading at their average levels with respective outperformance positions of 7% and 6%, according to DAOL’s research.
Bualuang Securities maintained “BUY” recommendation on MINT with a target price at THB42.00 per share, expecting 4Q23 YoY earnings to edge slightly lower due to cost and higher interest expenses, but should be stable on QoQ basis. BLS expected a high season for tourism demand in Thailand and Maldives should more or less offset the low season in Europe.
KGI Securities maintained a rating of Outperform with a 2024 target price of THB45.00, based on 12.1x 2023F EV/EBITDA or long-term mean. KGI expected MINT’s 4Q23F normalized profit to be flat QoQ as the broker expected the increase in consumption and spending during the holidays to offset the low season for hotels in Europe.
Meanwhile, JP Morgan upgraded its recommendation of MINT from “Underweight” to “Neutral” following 3Q23 earnings that were in line with its forecast.
The largest bank in Wall Street revised its 2023-25 forecast for MINT up by 1-4% as the 2023 estimate is now in line with consensus, but 2024-25 forecasts are still lower by 1-6%. JP Morgan stated that it is more cautious on demand in Europe after the survey showed that pent-up demand for holidays, which has been so evident since the lifting of pandemic restrictions, is starting to wane. Still, the investment bank reiterated MINT’s earnings that were in line with estimates, while there is no earnings risk, giving a target price at THB30.00 per share.
