Brian Belski, Chief Investment Strategist of the two centuries old Canadian bank, Bank of Montreal (BMO), predicted that the S&P 500 will end 2024 at an all time high of 5,100 or 12% gain, compared to the current level around 4,550 and its previous record peak at the almost 4,800 in January 2022.
Belski and his team believed the US stock index is entering its second year of a bull market run. They expected a new market leader pattern with a lower return but still a “solid” gain in 2024. The team cited the expected companies’ earnings rising about 13.6% in 2024, which is a “significant rebound,” compared to 2.6% in 2023, according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)’s data.
BMO’s prediction is aligned with Deutsche Bank’s earlier forecast on Monday. Bankim Chada, the German bank’s Chief US Equity and Global Strategist, forecast a 12% upside on S&P 500 in 2024 as well. The chief strategists cited the resilient US economy and expected US companies’ earnings to rise by 10%, despite an expected short and mild recession but it would increase by 19% if US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 2%.
Last week, Savita Subramanian, Bank of America (BofA) Global Research’s head of US Equity and Quantitative Strategist, also expected the S&P 500 to end 2024 at 5,000 as well. The head of strategist citing the lesser macroeconomic concerns and stalemate interest rate. However, both three banks’ numbers are still higher than Reuters’ poll S&P 500 median forecast from 33 strategists at 4,700.
Meanwhile, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, JPMorgan’s Chief Global Equity Strategist, expected the S&P 500 to drop by 8% to 4,200 by the end of 2024. This grimmest outlook cited a softening consumer trends, an absence of rapid interest rate cutting from US Federal Reserve (FED), which both will reverse investors sentiment and positioning, despite the US election year seasonal effect.
