Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations (FETCO), revealed that the FETCO Investor Confidence Index (FETCO ICI) in November 2023 (conducted during 20-30 November 2023), which anticipated the market condition over the next three months, is at 98.60, up 23.8 percent from the previous month, returning to “neutral” zone. Most supportive factor is fund inflow, followed by the Fed’s keeping its policy rate steady and the government’s economic stimulus. However, local economic retreat, international conflicts and China’s economic situation undermine confidence.
Highlights of FETCO Investor Confidence Index surveyed in November 2023 are as follows.
- Overall FETCO Investor Confidence index for the next three months (February 2024) is in “neutral” zone (80-119 of FETCO ICI Criterion), up 23.8 percent from the previous month to 98.60.
- Confidence of retail, proprietary and foreign investors is in “neutral” zone while that of institutional investors is in “bullish” zone.
- Most attractive sector is Energy & Utilities (ENERG).
- Least attractive sector to investors is Finance and Securities (FIN).
- Most influential factor driving the Thai stock market is fund inflow.
- Most important factor impeding the Thai stock market is local economic retreat.
“The survey results in November 2023 show that investor’s confidence across categories improved from a month earlier, with retail investors up 41 percent to 92.50, proprietary investors up 16.9 percent to 85.71, institutional investors up 35.7 percent to 135.71 and foreign investors up 20.0 percent to 100.
SET Index was fluctuated throughout the month given to concerns over ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, uncertainty over Fed’s policy rate direction, worries over China’s economy especially property sector, and Thailand’s lower than expected 3Q GDP result, which expanded 1.5 percent compared with 1.8 percent rise in the second quarter. At month-end, the SET Index closed at 1,380.18, down 0.1 percent from a month earlier. Average daily trading volume in November was THB 45,804 million. Foreign investors continued their sell-off, cashing out THB 21,132 million. Their net selling totaled THB 192,153 million during Jan-Nov.
External factors to monitor include volatility in global financial market, that may impact commodities prices such as oil and gold, Israel-Hamas conflict, China’s economic stimulus and weakening yields of foreign government bonds, which may trigger fund inflow to emerging market. Locally, the cabinet’s approval to establish Thai ESG fund added positive cue to sentiment as the fund is expected to attract over THB 10 billion worth of fund inflow to the capital market in December 2023. Eyes are also on the 2024 fiscal budget approval, which could drive the economy further. However, investors are cautious on the unclear disbursement of THB 10,000 digital wallet scheme and uncertainty in tourism situation during high season as the number of tourists from China is expected to be lower than expected.”
