Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move within the range of 1,400-1,420 points. Despite a positive sentiment from the potential of US Federal’s rate cuts and inflows to Thai saving funds such as RMF, SSF and TESG at the end year, however, the decline in oil prices due to the report of freight services will return to use trade route in the Red Sea, which pressured the energy sector. Moreover, there could be a selloff to lower the risk before the long weekend.
The market is now pricing in a base case of seven interest rate cuts in 2024 by the US Federal Reserve.
There is even a 10% chance of one more extra cut from the base case for a total of eight cuts in 2024 and a 1% chance for the nine cuts.
This implies that the market sees up to 3x as many rate cuts as the Fed is guiding with expectation for 175-225 basis points of rate cuts next year.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sach expects the FOMC to deliver three consecutive cuts as soon as March, May and June.
