Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move between 1,365-1,380 points. The analyst noted that even if the overall market has a positive sentiment from the revised up of global GDP growth by the IMF to 3.1%, rising crude oil prices and a positive earnings results from PTTEP, but investors could derisk ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting (expected to maintain at 5.25-5.50%), which would pressure the fund flows and the Thai market to fluctuate.
The January 2024 World Economic Outlook Update is now projecting global growth to be steady at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, saying that the global economy has been surprisingly resilient.
The global headline inflation rate is expected to decrease to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025, with the forecast for 2025 revised down by the Fund. The likelihood of a hard landing has decreased due to faster disinflation and steady growth.
In the revised projection, emerging markets and developing economies are expected to outperform the global economy and advanced economies in 2023-25. EM and DE are expected to grow 4.1%, 4.1% and 4.2% respectively throughout the period, while advanced economies are expected to grow 1.6%, 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively.
The Thai economic growth this year has also been revised up to 4.4% and 2.0% in 2024 and 2025, up 1.2 percentage points and cut 1.1 percentage points, respectively.
The revised by 1.2 percentage points for 2024 economic projection came in as a surprise. The kingdom has not seen such growth that surge above 4% since 2018 that the economy grew 4.2%. If the Thai economy could achieve 4.4% growth, it would be a 12-year high.
The market is looking ahead to the Fed’s meeting today as the odds for a cut in this meeting are now down to 2%.
Meanwhile, the probability for a 25 basis points cut in March has been trending down to around 40%, the lowest odds since November 2023. Still, the market maintained a forecast for six rate cuts for a total of 150bps this year.
