Mr. Chaiyot Jiwangkul, assistant director of the analytic department of Krungsri Securities (KSS), stated via “Kaohoon Jor Talad” program on 31 January 2024 that the Thai stock market was still in the sideways trend similarly to the past few days, as investors awaited the resolution of the US Fed meeting tonight. The analyst expected the Fed to hold its interest rate at 5.5%.
Factors to be focused on were the overall economic outlook of the US and the interest rate decision.
The US Fed might be assessing the situation as to how much the current state of the economy could slow down the inflation in the US. As of now, the 4Q23 economic data has not shown any major effects to the country’s economy.
The US inflation rate is currently at 3%, while the target is to lower it to 2%. The analyst anticipated the possibility of the US Fed to cut its interest rate in 3Q24, as the Chinese economy is expected to still be dull, especially with 30% of the country’s property sector being relatively weak, despite the economic stimulus from the government, as well as the tensions in the Red Sea which put pressure on the global market.
Meanwhile, the fund flow from foreign investors is expected to be lower since investors keep their eyes on the US Fed meeting to assess the overall economy before investing. If the domestic economy does not grow, it may lower the chance of investment from foreigners. In addition, the announcement of Thailand’s GDP by the Ministry of Finance at 2.8%, which is lower than the expectation of 3.5%, could also affect the confidence of investors.
Regarding investment strategy, the analyst recommends investing in stocks with interesting points and stocks that generate positive performance, as business performances will be announced during January until the end of February.
The analyst gave ERW a base price of THB 6.40, following the positive factor from the Thai-Chinese visa waiver and gave CBG a base price of THB 93, as the company recovered in 4Q23 from the decreased costs in gas and sugar as well as the expansion of it business in Singapore by investing in beer products, which cause the revenue to rise.
