On Tuesday at 11:47 AM (Bangkok time), the share price of Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (SET: BEM) rose by 4.14% or THB 0.30 to THB 7.55 per share, with a trading value of THB 239.52 million.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) expected the 4Q23 performance of BEM to grow larger than expected, with a net profit of THB 830 million, an increase of 38% YoY, which is stronger than the expectation of THB 620-700 million.
The expectation was supported by the revenue growth of 8% YoY and 1% QoQ, following the recovery of travel and tourism in the country, which caused passengers to travel more with BEM, especially by metro. Metro passengers grew by 19% YoY and 1% QoQ, making a new high for the number of passengers. As for the expressway, there were 1.1 million passengers using the expressway, accumulating to a rise of 2% YoY and 1% QoQ. The gross profit margin of the company jumped to 44.9% from 39.1% in the previous year and 42.8% in the previous quarter.
In addition, the overall costs declined due to the postponement of the maintenance costs for some parts of the expressway to 2024; the lower maintenance cost of the metro, which decreased in accordance with the CPI; and lower electric bills.
Regarding the normal profit in 3Q23, BEM had revenue from the dividend payment from TTW Public Company Limited (SET: TTW) of THB 221 million.
DAOL Securities (Thailand) expected the net profit of the company in 2023 to be THB 3.2 billion, an increase of 33% YoY. However, if the profit in 4Q23 grew as expected, the net profit in 2023 will increase to THB 3.5 billion, an increase of 42% YoY.
As for 2024, the expected net profit was THB 3.7 billion, an increase of 14% YoY. The analyst expected the expressway passengers to be at 1.16 million per day, an increase of 4% YoY, and the metro passengers to be at 430,000 per day, an increase of 9%, following the development of real estate along the railway line, the emergence of new railway lines, and the recovery of tourism.
Regarding the business performance in 1Q24, the analyst expected that the net profit of the company would grow stronger compared to the previous year, as the number of metro passengers was foreseen to be constantly reaching new highs, but may also remain flat when compared to the previous quarter, following the maintenance cost for some parts of the expressway that was postponed to be recognized in 1Q24. BEM also had positive factors awaiting as the company acquired the double deck project with a financial amount of THB 35 billion, as well as the beginning of the negotiation regarding the O&M of the MRT Purple Line project, which would be able to see progress in the second half of 2024.
The analyst gave a “BUY” recommendation for BEM with a target price of THB 10.40.
