Krungsri Securities (KSS) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move within the range of 1,380-1,395 points, pressured by expectations that the US Fed could maintain interest rates for longer after the report of higher-than-expected CPI and PPI data. However, rising crude oil prices could be positive to the energy sector. Meanwhile, there could be speculation on specific stocks on better earnings and dividend payout that should boost the overall market higher.
The Thai economy for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the year as a whole missed expectations as tourist arrivals and demand grew slower-than-expected.
Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter rose 1.7%, compared to 2.5% growth forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Meanwhile, Thai 2023 GDP grew 1.9%, also missing expectations for 2.4% growth.
The weaker-than-expected economic growth raises the case for an interest rate cut at the Bank of Thailand’s next policy meeting on April 10, after it left the key rate steady at 2.50%, the highest level in more than a decade, but in a split vote as two policymakers favoured a rate cut by a quarter point.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its key policy rate on 500 billion yuan worth of 1-year medium term lending facility unchanged at 2.50% as expected on Sunday with uncertainties around the timing of the US Fed easing its policy rates after higher inflation data weigh on the Fed’s decision that could result in keeping the interest rate higher for longer.
