Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,367.95 points, increased 5.98 points or 0.44% with a trading value of 44.79 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market rose higher than expected, as it was supported by the purchase of bank stocks, retail stocks, and food and beverage stocks. Investors purchased bank stocks for speculation as they anticipated the US Federal Reserve to hold higher levels of interest rates for a long period, while the purchase of food and beverage stocks was supported by the recovery in pork and chicken prices, as well as the rising demand for beverages from hot weather in the country.
The analyst expected the market to trade narrowly on Thursday, as investors monitored the announcement from the Fed and Jerome Powell, as well as 1Q24 earnings reports from listed companies.
China’s official surveys revealed a slowdown in both manufacturing and services activities in April, indicating a deceleration in the momentum of the world’s second-largest economy at the beginning of the second quarter.
Despite a solid first-quarter GDP growth that reduced the immediate need for increased stimulus measures, policymakers still face significant challenges.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) which fell to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, while the services sub-index under the NBS non-manufacturing survey dropped to 50.3 in April from 52.4 in March, marking the slowest pace since January.
New export orders grew slower, and employment continued to decline, highlighting ongoing economic challenges for the country.
The latest revision of Asia-Pacific growth projection by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated the downgrade for Thailand’s GDP to 2.7% in 2024 from 3.2%.
This downward trajectory came after the IMF increased its growth projection for Asia in 2024, citing optimism about India’s growth trajectory and calling for more stimulus from China. The IMF anticipated a 4.5% growth for Asia’s economy this year, up by 0.3 percentage points compared to six months ago, with a consistent forecast of 4.3% for 2025, contrasting with the projection for Thailand.
In April, headline inflation in the euro zone remained stable at 2.4%, aligning with economists’ predictions, while core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, decreased to 2.7% from 2.9% in the previous month.
The euro zone saw a GDP growth of 0.3% in the first quarter, surpassing consensus estimates. However, a revision from no growth to a 0.1% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2023 indicated a technical recession in the second half of last year.
Meanwhile, there is growing anticipation for the European Central Bank to decrease interest rates at its upcoming meeting in June. Market indicators suggest a high likelihood of a rate cut in the month, with further expectations for cuts in July or September.
Several ECB members have highlighted the necessity of lowering rates to prevent a significant slowdown in the euro zone economy, citing concerns over oil prices and instability in the Middle East, while analysts at BNP Paribas believe that stable headline inflation, driven by higher crude oil prices, will likely support a rate cut in June, though they foresee uncertainty in the rate outlook post-June.
