CGS International Securities (Thailand) expected Thailand’s SET Index to move within the range of 1,315-1,335 points with a possibility for a short technical rebound. However, the overall outlook for the Thai stock market would be muted even after the ADP Employment data from the US came out weaker than expected that should fuel hopes for rate cuts from the Fed and also the movement from ECB for further cuts.
The European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed the widely-anticipated reduction in interest rates during its meeting, despite the presence of inflationary pressures within the 20-nation euro zone. This move lowered the central bank’s key rate to 3.75%, decreasing from the record level of 4% maintained since September 2023.
In the updated macroeconomic projections, closely monitored by investors, ECB staff increased the estimated average headline inflation for 2024 to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%. Additionally, they raised the 2025 forecast to 2.2% from 2%, while maintaining the 2026 projection at 1.9%.
The markets see two more rate cuts from the ECB this year, expecting it to be in September and December.
Bank of America predicts that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a 0.1% month-on-month (MoM) increase (0.13% unrounded). According to the forecast, the year-on-year (YoY) rate is anticipated to stay at 3.4%. BofA anticipates that the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% MoM (0.30% unrounded), keeping the YoY rate steady at 3.6%.
