FSS International Investment Advisory Securities (FSSIA) anticipates a resilient global economy in the second half of 2024, with a projected 3% annual growth rate from 2024 to 2026. The US economy may experience a slight slowdown due to tight monetary policies, whereas the Eurozone is expected to witness improved economic growth following rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
FSSIA foresees strong growth in India and ASEAN, gradual recovery in China, and easing inflation trends that could prompt many central banks to initiate rate cuts, consequently supporting investment in risk assets.
The Thai economy is expected to gain momentum in the second quarter through the second half of 2024, based on the assumption that the Prime Minister prevails in the court case and retains the position. FSSIA maintains the SET target at 1,470, anticipating an enhancement in market resilience and recovery supported by the uptick rule and TESG fund upgrade.
The analyst remains optimistic about the growth outlook for the Thai economy, estimating sequential quarterly growth rates of approximately 0.7-1% over the next three quarters. The acceleration is expected to be fueled by the 2024 budget disbursement, with CPI gradually increasing towards the target range by the fourth quarter, while also expecting the MPC to hold its interest rate throughout this year and could cut rates as soon as 2Q25.
The SET target is maintained at 1,470, with a selective investment strategy emphasizing food exports and domestic plays with robust earnings outlooks and appealing valuations. FSSIA identifies AOT, BDMS, CPALL, CPN, GPSC, KCG, SHR, SJWD, TIDLOR, and TU as preferred stocks for 2024 based on their positive attributes and growth potential.
In conclusion, FSSIA’s comprehensive market analysis underscores a positive outlook for both the global and Thai economies, with strategic investment recommendations aimed at maximizing potential returns amid evolving market conditions.
