Market Roundup 10 July 2024

Thailand’s SET Index closed at 1,323.28 points, increased 3.36 points or 0.25% with a trading value of 34.21 billion baht. The analyst stated that the Thai stock market traded narrowly, as there were no supporting factors. Investors expressed disappointment as the new regulations for the ThaiESG fund were not discussed during the cabinet meeting held yesterday.

The analyst expected the market to continue trading narrowly, as investors monitored geopolitical catalysts from overseas.

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized caution in his latest congressional testimony regarding U.S. interest rate policies, signaling a hesitation to cut rates prematurely. Powell accentuated the crucial balance between not withdrawing monetary support too soon, which could disrupt the fight against inflation, and not acting too slowly, which might weaken the economy.

Despite acknowledging a recent easing in inflation and some cooling in the labor market, Powell reiterated that more comprehensive data is necessary before confidently asserting that inflation is sustainably trending towards the Fed’s 2% target.

 

Consumer prices in China increased for the fifth consecutive month in June but fell short of expectations, while producer prices continued to show deflationary trends.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in June, marking the slowest growth in three months and below the 0.3% increase in May, while economists polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.4% increase.

Despite government support measures aiming to kickstart the economy, China faces challenges related to a housing downturn and job insecurity, which have impacted consumer and industrial activities, prompting calls for more effective policies.

 

The corporate goods price index (CGPI), reflecting the prices companies charge each other for goods and services, rose by 2.9% in June compared to a year earlier, aligning with the median market forecast.

Wholesale inflation in Japan picked up pace in June due to the yen’s depreciation, which led to higher costs of importing raw materials. This development has maintained market anticipation for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in the near future.

 

Sources have indicated that the Bank of Japan is likely to reduce its economic growth forecast for the current year in July but will project that inflation will remain around the 2% target in the upcoming years.

This stance keeps the possibility of an interest rate hike this month alive, while the central bank is set to unveil new quarterly growth and price forecasts at its next policy meeting on July 30-31, where the decision to raise rates from the current near-zero levels will be deliberated.

 

Thailand’s finance minister remarked that the country’s economy has been struggling for an extended period, facing worsening growth due to underlying structural issues.

Pichai Chunhavajira highlighted the government’s efforts to elevate economic growth to 3% this year, aiming to surpass the current projection of approximately 2.5%. He emphasized that the current growth rates are notably lower compared to the near 6% rates experienced in the past.